The gap between the national figure and what people experience in different states has widened, with food costs remaining the biggest driver of hardship for families.
According to the NBS Consumer Price Index for June 2026, headline inflation stood at 15.91% year-on-year. That represents a marginal drop from 15.93% recorded in May 2026.
On the surface, the decline suggests a slowing in the general pace of price increases. However, a breakdown by state tells a different story. An analysis shows that 19 states plus the FCT, a total of 20 out of Nigeria’s 37 sub-national entities, recorded annual all-items inflation above 30% in June.
That means a majority of Nigerians live in places where prices have more than doubled in less than three years.
At the top of the chart was Niger State with an annual inflation rate of 42.23%. Kogi followed closely at 41.59%, while the FCT recorded 39.91%.
Kwara came in at 36.52%, Plateau 35.82%, Sokoto 35.22%, and Benue 35.06%. Other states above the 30% mark included Osun 34.46%, Yobe 34.40%, Kebbi 34.07%, Enugu 34.00%, Bauchi 33.68%, Gombe 33.51%, Oyo 32.81%, Lagos 32.28%, Akwa Ibom 31.85%, Adamawa 31.82%, Ekiti 31.00%, Taraba 30.54%, and Abia 30.28%.
The remaining 17 states posted annual inflation below 30%. Imo recorded the lowest rate nationwide at 19.47%, followed by Ebonyi at 20.79% and Katsina at 21.87%.
Other states under 30% were Rivers 23.73%, Zamfara 24.00%, Kaduna 24.71%, Edo 25.90%, Cross River 25.91%, Delta 26.31%, Borno 26.62%, Kano 26.80%, Anambra 27.37%, Ondo 28.14%, Ogun 28.18%, Jigawa 29.06%, Nasarawa 29.11%, and Bayelsa 29.66%.
Even Imo, the state with the lowest inflation, was still 3.56 percentage points higher than the national headline rate, highlighting how far above average many states remain.
The NBS cautioned that state inflation figures should not be used for direct interstate price comparisons because household spending patterns and the weight assigned to goods and services vary across locations.
Food prices continued to dominate household budgets. Nationally, food inflation stood at 17.52% year-on-year in June 2026, down from 25.41% in June 2025. But on a month-on-month basis, food inflation accelerated sharply to 3.75% from 2.98% in May.
The NBS attributed the monthly jump to higher prices for items such as crayfish, fresh pepper, tomatoes, dried green peas, yam flour, water yam, beef, banana, cassava flour, cowpea, garri, Irish potatoes and yam tubers.
At the state level, food inflation was even more severe. Kogi recorded the highest annual food inflation at 53.02%. Niger followed with 43.83%, and Benue with 40.83%. The FCT recorded 40.20%, Adamawa 39.61%, Osun 39.56%, Kwara 39.00%, Kebbi 37.59%, and Sokoto 37.01%.
Other states with food inflation above 30% included Plateau 36.84%, Yobe 36.68%, Enugu 35.24%, Gombe 34.43%, Kaduna 34.41%, Bayelsa 34.03%, Jigawa 33.92%, Ekiti 33.04%, Akwa Ibom 32.93%, Edo 32.66%, Bauchi 31.54%, Zamfara 30.84%, Delta 30.66%, Nasarawa 30.48%, Cross River 30.39%, and Oyo 30.17%.
The lowest food inflation rates were in Katsina at 19.15%, Rivers at 23.81%, and Imo at 24.60%.
Price changes also varied widely from one month to the next. Niger recorded the highest month-on-month headline inflation at 11.65%. Katsina followed with 8.13%, Kwara 7.52%, Gombe 7.09%, Kebbi 6.99%, Plateau 6.53%, and Lagos 6.37%.
On the other side, Bayelsa recorded the biggest monthly decline at -6.48%. Benue dropped by -5.58%, Cross River -5.12%, Borno -4.37%, and Anambra -4.17%.
For food specifically, Katsina led with a monthly increase of 16.82%, followed by Kebbi at 9.79% and Niger at 8.96%. The biggest monthly declines in food inflation were in Borno -3.54%, Benue -2.36%, and Bayelsa -1.34%.
Commenting on the report, Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, said the June figures point to a broad stabilisation in headline inflation but mask deeper problems.
He noted that while the headline rate eased slightly, the renewed acceleration in food inflation is the dominant concern. Year-on-year food inflation rose from 17.43% to 17.52%, while the month-on-month jump to 3.75% was the strongest in several months.
According to Yusuf, this suggests food prices have resumed an upward trajectory after a brief period of moderation. He described food inflation as the biggest driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, eroding purchasing power, worsening poverty and food insecurity, and weakening the impact of ongoing economic reforms.
The CPPE boss argued that Nigeria’s inflation challenge is largely structural rather than monetary. He listed insecurity, high transportation and logistics costs, elevated energy prices, rising fertiliser costs, supply chain disruptions and imported inflation as key factors pushing prices up.
On policy response, Yusuf said the June data do not justify another round of monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Instead, he called for coordinated structural reforms aimed at boosting food production, improving logistics, reducing energy and production costs, deepening domestic petroleum refining, and strengthening productivity across sectors.
For many families, the national average of 15.91% does not reflect daily reality. In states where inflation is above 30% or 40%, wages and incomes have not kept pace with the cost of essentials.
Food accounts for a large share of household spending, especially among low-income earners. With food inflation above 30% in more than 20 states, the ability of families to afford three meals a day has been severely affected.
Transport costs, which feed into the price of goods, remain high due to fuel prices and poor road networks. Insecurity in farming areas has also reduced agricultural output in some regions, further tightening supply.
Economists note that until these structural issues are addressed, inflation will remain uneven across the country. States with better security, market access, and supply chains tend to have lower inflation, while those facing conflict or logistical bottlenecks see faster price increases.
The June 2026 CPI shows that Nigeria’s inflation story is not uniform. While the headline number suggests a slight easing, the lived experience in most states remains tough.
With more than half of states and the FCT still above 30% annual inflation, and food inflation accelerating on a monthly basis, pressure on households is likely to persist in the short term.
Policy attention is now expected to shift toward measures that directly address food supply, logistics, and energy costs, as these are seen as the main channels through which inflation is feeding into household budgets.
Until then, Nigerians in high-inflation states will continue to navigate an economy where prices rise faster than incomes, and where the gap between national statistics and local realities remains wide.
